Li Daokui this round of exchange rate reform time window has closed the exchange rate should be base 南阳理工学院常用服务

Li Daokui: this round of exchange rate reform time window has closed the exchange rate to stabilize the central bank monetary policy committee member and former director of the Tsinghua University Chinese and the world economy research center Li Daokui in the "50 China Economic Forum 2016 annual meeting said the Chinese this round of exchange rate reform time window has been closed, the exchange rate should be based on stability, no longer excessive devaluation pressure. Li Daokui said that the completion of the beginning of the 13th Five-Year five mission is financial stability. The overall foundation of China’s finance is still unstable and unstable, and today the relationship between finance and the real economy is more complex than any other period of history. Then he suggested that we should make clear the stability of the financial, accelerate the basic rectification work, such as bankruptcy enterprise debt restructuring and stable exchange rate. He bluntly said that the window of exchange rate reform has been closed. He said, to exchange rate reform, first of all, the need for external exchange rate view of the country is more consistent, thus, in the absence of a substantial devaluation of the situation, the capital account gradually opened. The exchange rate elasticity has the opportunity, now this time has passed". The exchange rate should be stable, and the pressure of further devaluation can not be produced. The following is the speech: my view is very simple, now the country put forward the five major tasks in the early 13th Five-Year, I think the foundation to accomplish the five major tasks is to steady financial, China economy at a critical period of transformation and upgrading, so this round of upgrading and transformation at the end of last century, the beginning of this century and 90 years there is a fundamental difference, is the interaction relationship between finance and the real economy is very obvious. I have two basic judgments, one basic judgment, the basis of China’s financial overall is still unstable, unstable. From the bank, although now reported bad rate of about 2%, in fact, in the economic growth continues to slow down the premise, the bad rate will rise. Looking at the bond market, in recent years, a large number of enterprises have issued debt, and the price is inflated, the yield of many bonds is basically consistent with the national debt, the risk is underestimated. The stock market has a large number of enterprises, in fact, the operating situation is not good, but the price is not low, so in all respects, the financial foundation is unstable. Now the stock of money for dollars is 21 trillion, each ID card, can turn out 50 thousand dollars a year, 60 million of the identity card, you can put our foreign exchange reserves out of the light, so the whole foundation is unstable, and any time in history are compared based is not stable. Today’s relationship between finance and the real economy is more complex than any other period of history. As the stock market fell in January, investors lost fifty million. Today, our financial and international relations are also very close, the stock market fell in May last year, the exchange rate reform in August fluctuations, coupled with the decline of the stock market in January this year, each brings international influence, each time with the exchange rate depreciation pressure interaction, a vicious circle. What I’m talking about is that the real economy and the financial relationship are very close. In addition, the actual interaction of insurance, trust, banking and stock market assets is very complex. When the stock market falls, the entire asset situation will directly affect the financing costs of the real economy, how to do? On Theory

李稻葵:此轮汇改时间窗口已关闭 汇率应以稳定为主   前央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵在“中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”上表示,中国此轮汇改的时间窗口已经关闭,汇率应以稳定为主,不能再产生过大的人民币贬值压力。   李稻葵表示,十三五初期五大任务的完成基础是稳金融。中国金融总体的基础仍然是不稳定、不稳固的,且今天金融与实体经济的关系,比历史任何时期都要复杂。进而他建议,应明确提出稳金融、加快基础性的整顿工作如破产企业债务重组并稳定汇率。   他直言,汇率改革的窗口已经关闭。他分析称,要进行汇率改革,首先需要外部对本国的汇率观点比较一致,由此,在没有大幅度贬值的情况下,将资本账户逐步打开。“汇率弹性是有时机的,现在这个时机已经过去了”。汇率以稳定为主,千万不能产生进一步贬值的巨大压力。   以下为演讲实录:   我的观点非常简单,现在国家提出十三五初期的五大任务,我认为完成这五大任务的基础就是稳金融,中国经济到了转型升级的关键时期,那么这一轮的转型升级与上个世纪末,本世纪初和90年有一点根本的不同,就是金融与实体经济之间交互的关系非常明显。   我有两个基本的判断,一个基本判断,中国金融总体的基础仍然是不稳定的,不稳固的。从银行来讲,虽然现在报出来的不良率在2%左右,实际上在经济增速继续放缓的大前提下,不良率还会上升。再看债券市场,最近几年,大量的企业发了债,而且价格虚高,很多债的收益率跟国债基本上是一致的,风险被低估了。股票市场有大量的企业,实际上经营情况是不好的,但是价格并不低,所以从各个方面来讲,金融的基础是不稳固的。   现在货币存量换成美元已经是21万亿了,每个身份证,每年可以转出5万美元,6千万的身份证,就可以把咱们的外汇储备搞光,所以整个基础是不稳的,和历史任何时期相比基础都不够稳。   今天的金融与实体经济的关系,比历史任何时期都要复杂。由于今年一月份的股市下降,股民每人损失五千万。我们今天的金融跟国际关系也很密切,去年5月份股市下跌,8月份汇率改革波动,加上今年1月份股市下降,每次都带来了国际影响,每次都跟汇率贬值压力相互作用,恶性循环。我刚才讲的是实体经济和金融关系非常密切。   另外现在的保险、信托、银行、股市资产实际交互程度非常复杂。股市下降的时候,整个资产情况会直接影响实体经济的融资成本,怎么办?   我建议有三点。第一,明确提出稳金融,稳金融是指宏观上的金融,包括资本价格,资本市场整体的股价要有明确的目标,要有机制,要稳住。比如说宣布,如果市盈率降到10倍以下,必须有一个机制,学香港1998年的时候,怎么退出,价格回来以后,基金赚了钱以后,要按香港的方式返还给股民,或者进入社会保障金。   第二件事,加快基础性的整顿工作。比如说一些要破产的企业,债务上就要重组,再比如说很多的银行呆账、坏账,在整体金融稳定的情况下,鼓励它赶紧重组。整体的稳定和微观的调整是不矛盾的,是相辅相成的。   第三件事,稳汇率,非常坦率的讲,此时此刻汇率改革的窗口已经关闭,汇率改革需要窗口,需要外部对你的汇率观点比较一致,而且没有大幅度贬值的情况下,资本账户逐步打开,汇率弹性是有时机的,现在这个时机已经过去了。   未来一段时间,我的观点是以稳定为主。因为汇率市场在一定程度上是一个多余的价格,相当于盲肠,此时此刻影响汇率走势主要来自于金融方面,这个方面,汇率以稳定为主,千万不能产生进一步贬值的巨大压力。   三件事搞好了,金融就稳定了,金融稳定了,我们产业升级和经济结构调整就有希望了。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: