Electric vehicles will wipe out 13 million barrels of crude oil daily demand in 2040 武藤兰秘书的噩梦

Electric cars in 2040 will erase 13 million barrels of crude oil demand on U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Sina warrants stocks Beijing time 29 days we are talking about electric cars will change the oil market face, real energy electric cars, or perhaps more than people imagine. Oilprice reported that Peng Boxin’s Energy Finance (BNEF) data showed that the cost of electric vehicle batteries decreased dramatically, which means that the battery will be cheaper than the internal combustion engine in the next few years. By 2020s, the price of electric vehicles will gain a competitive advantage over traditional cars, and this startling change will open up a new page in the history of the energy market. In 2015, the price of batteries fell by 35%, which was another significant step forward in technological progress. BNEF believes that within six years, the price of non subsidy electric vehicles will be reduced to the same level as ordinary gasoline vehicles, which means that in 2022, electric vehicles will usher in "sales take off node"". In fact, it is assumed that gasoline vehicles can make energy efficiency increased by 3.5% per year on the premise of evaluation. The report predicts that by 2040, electric vehicles will occupy 35% of the global automotive market share. The key driver of all this comes from the reduction in battery prices. The price of lithium-ion batteries dropped to only $350 per kilowatt hour in 2015, down by 65% compared with 2010. However, this decline is not far from the end, 2030 will be reduced to 120 U.S. dollars per kilowatt hour, less than half of the current. Since then, all the way down. The oil market has no reason not to be vigilant about it. BNEF said simply: "people will eventually find that the severity of the electric vehicle revolution, both the oil producing countries and the oil companies, is greatly underestimated." The revolution was clearly unexpected in the oil industry. Bloomberg Randall (Tom Randall) disclosure, ConocoPhillips CEO Lance (Ryan Lance) in 2015 had said to him, "have a substantial impact on electric cars in the next fifty years, said he is likely to see the electric car really become a threat to the day. The threat of electric vehicles in the oil market is severely underestimated, but BNEF estimates that by 2023, electric vehicles will be able to reduce the market demand for crude oil by 2 million barrels per day. It’s just the beginning, and the real blow comes after the sale of electric cars. BNEF estimates that electric vehicles will gain 35% market share in 2040, which means the demand for crude oil will be reduced by 13 million barrels per day. Now the crude oil market a miserable conditions, but in fact, every part of it is the pile up in excess of requirement 1 million to 2 million barrels, while the supply exceeds the demand of 13 million barrels of what will happen, it is hard to imagine. The threat of electric vehicles has been very practical. At the same time, the strong rise of 3 electric vehicles

电动汽车2040年将抹掉1300万桶原油日需求 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   新浪美股北京时间29日讯 大家都在说电动汽车将改变原油市场的面目,可电动汽车的真正能量,恐怕还是超过人们的想象。   Oilprice报道称,彭博新能源财经(BNEF)的数据显示,电动汽车电池的成本降低的速度惊人,这就意味着未来几年内就将出现电池比内燃机便宜的局面。到了2020年代,电动汽车在价格上就将获得相对于传统汽车的竞争优势,而这一令人震惊的变化将揭开能源市场历史新的一页。   2015年,电池价格下跌了35%,这是技术进步取得的又一重大进展。BNEF相信,六年之内,无补贴的电动汽车价格就将降低到和普通汽油汽车相当的水平,这就意味着2022年的时候,电动汽车将迎来“销售起飞节点”。事实上,这还是事先假定汽油汽车能够将节能效率每年提升3.5%的前提下做出的评估。   报告预计到2040年,电动汽车将占据全球汽车市场35%的份额。   这一切最关键的推动力还是来自电池价格的降低。锂离子电池的价格2015年降低到了每千瓦时只有350美元,较之2010年时低了65%。不过,这下跌还远没有到结束的时候,2030年将降低到120美元每千瓦时,还不到现在的一半。此后,还是一路走低。   原油市场没有理由不对此提起警惕。BNEF简单明了地说:“人们最终会发现,对于电动汽车革命的严重性,无论是各产油国政府还是各家石油公司,都大大估计不足。”   这一革命显然是出乎石油行业意料之外的。彭博的兰德尔(Tom Randall)披露,康菲的首席执行官兰斯(Ryan Lance)2015年时曾经对他说过,“电动汽车未来五十年内都不会有实质性影响”,还说他很可能看不到电动汽车真正成为威胁那一天。 石油市场对电动汽车的威胁严重估计不足   可是,BNEF估计电动汽车到2023年,就足以让市场上的原油需求每天减少200万桶。这还只是个开始,真正的打击是来自电动汽车销售起飞之后。BNEF估计,电动汽车2040年将获得35%的市场份额,而这就意味着原油需求每天减少1300万桶。现在原油市场一片凄风苦雨,而实际上,每天供过于求的部分不过是100万到200万桶而已,而供应超过需求1300万桶会发生什么,简直是难以想象。电动汽车的威胁已经非常切实了。   与此同时,电动汽车的强势崛起意味着电力需求将急剧窜升,毕竟2040年卖出的4100万部电动汽车都是要充电的。这些汽车预计每天需要1900万亿瓦时电能,大约相当于2015年全球电力需求的8%   当然,前述这一切还都是预期而非现实。如果有人熟悉国际能源署、能源信息署或者是欧佩克的情况,他肯定会告诉你,所谓预言没有一条是完全准确的。可是在这里,未来的市场份额到底会是25%、35%还是45%,其实都已经不再重要了。关键在于趋势,在于电动汽车将迎来增长拐点,让市场对原油的需求急剧缩水。   伴随制造工艺和化学技术的持续进步,电池成本必然会持续走低。石油公司当然也能降低成本,但是商品价格的变化轨迹终归与技术进步不同。自然资源伴随日益稀缺,成本只能上扬。如果是真正着眼于长期,没有人会相信石油价格会永远保持30美元。或者哪怕未来油价真的长期低迷,那也只能是因为技术进步彻底摧毁了需求的缘故。要知道,我们走出石器时代,可不是因为石头用完了。(子衿) 责任编辑:李兀 SF053相关的主题文章: